ENSPIRING.ai: CNN's Richard Quest Speaks with Masayoshi Son about Artificial General Intelligence at #fII8 #AI
The video highlights an engaging interview with an influential figure in Artificial Intelligence, discussing his unwavering dedication to realizing Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) and its potential to transform humanity. He elaborates on the distinction between Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and ASI, predicting ASI will be 10,000 times smarter than the human brain by 2035. The conversation touches on regulatory concerns and the necessity of substantial investment to develop ASI, emphasizing that most people involved are likely to use this technology for good.
The discussion also explores the interviewee's views on AI-powered robotics and his successes and failures in the tech industry. Despite challenges like the WeWork debacle and experiences of financial downturns, he shares insights into the importance of learning from mistakes and maintaining a long-term vision. He reflects on significant investments such as Alibaba and NVIDIA and addresses misconceptions about financial bubbles, advocating for a broader understanding of long-term value.
Main takeaways from the video:
Please remember to turn on the CC button to view the subtitles.
Key Vocabularies and Common Phrases:
1. gazillion [ɡəˈzɪljən] - (noun) - An informal term for a very large number or quantity. - Synonyms: (innumerable, countless, myriad)
Okay. Over the years, I have done a gazillion interviews.
2. obsession [əbˈsɛʃən] - (noun) - A persistent and dominating thought or preoccupation. - Synonyms: (fixation, compulsion, preoccupation)
The quote is, I am obsessed by realizing artificial super intelligence.
3. regulate [ˈrɛɡjəˌleɪt] - (verb) - To control or supervise by means of rules and regulations. - Synonyms: (control, supervise, govern)
Of course, we have to also be careful. We have to regulate.
4. centric [ˈsɛntrɪk] - (adjective) - Being in the center; focused or concentrated. - Synonyms: (central, focal, core)
So ARM is going to become a centric chip company very soon.
5. tremendous [trəˈmɛndəs] - (adjective) - Very great in amount, scale, or intensity. - Synonyms: (enormous, immense, vast)
The artificial superintelligence comes and robotics come together, that will be a tremendous product.
6. undervalue [ˌʌndərˈvælju] - (verb) - To assign too low a value to something. - Synonyms: (depreciate, underestimate, devalue)
So I think Nvidia is undervalued.
7. capex [kæp ɛks] - (noun) - Short for Capital Expenditure, used to indicate funds used by a company to acquire or upgrade physical assets. - Synonyms: (capital investment, expenditure, outlay)
Okay, the cumulative capex $9 trillion.
8. cumulative [ˈkjuːmjʊˌleɪtɪv] - (adjective) - Increasing or increased in quantity, degree, or force by successive additions. - Synonyms: (aggregate, collective, comprehensive)
$9 trillion per year cumulative investment of $9 trillion small money.
9. depreciate [dɪˈpriːʃiˌeɪt] - (verb) - To diminish in value over a period of time. - Synonyms: (devalue, lower, reduce)
You can depreciate one year revenue.
10. reflection [rɪˈflɛkʃən] - (noun) - Serious thought or consideration. - Synonyms: (contemplation, meditation, introspection)
After both difficult times, you went into a period of reflection and contemplation.
CNN's Richard Quest Speaks with Masayoshi Son about Artificial General Intelligence at #fII8 #AI
Okay. Over the years, I have done a gazillion interviews. I've interviewed everyone except you. But I've never had more interest in what I was going to ask than I'm asking you. Everybody here has at some stage. You've got to ask him this, you've got to ask him that.
So let's start with what is interesting to you. I know it's AI. I know you are. And the quote is, I am obsessed by realizing artificial super intelligence. Are you still obsessed? Definitely. I'm only focused on that. What does that mean, you're only focused on that? Explain.
Well, that would change the mankind's future forever. I want to make mankind's future better, happier, fantastic future. That's what I'm interested in. So you. What is the difference between AGI and ASI to those. To those of us born of a different generation? Okay, okay, what's the difference? Yeah, AGI definition is same level of as a human brain. That's AGI, artificial general intelligence. But people have a different point of view.
Definition of artificial superintelligence. How super? 10 times super or 100 times super? My definition of ASI is 10,000 times super smarter than human brain. That's my definition of ASI. And that's coming in 20, 35, 10 years, 10 years from today. 10,000 times smarter. That's my prediction.
What is different in that? What will it do that we should either look forward to or be worried about? Both. Both. We should be looking forward to that. Of course, we have to also be careful. We have to regulate. If such a superpower comes, and no regulation, it could be super dangerous. Of course, automotive industry was very, very beneficial, productive to human. But we have a regulation, same thing.
No, no, I don't, with respect. Because we don't have anybody in the world who's willingly building or wanting to build automobiles that are dangerous. When it comes to AI, there may be state actors, there may be independent actors that want to build AI that can be harmful to other people.
How can we guard against it? How do you guard against it? Of course, there is always some bad guy. You know, 1%, 2% of human are bad guys. Okay, but 99% of human are actually good guys. Okay? So the bad guy, of course, tried to use AI for the bad intention. However, those bad guys not necessarily have enough capital. This is a massive capital, hundreds of billions of dollars of investment is required to make superintelligence. The bad guy. How do they sponsor. There is not enough money to sponsor the bad guys.
You admitted in the Past that, you were not as involved in AGI, frankly, because you didn't have the money. You ran out of money. Yes, of course. Money is not unlimited. I had to save some money for the big fight, okay? For the big opportunity. Now I'm saving tens of billions of dollars so that I can make next big move.
Do you know where that is? I mean, you may not know the companies, they may not even have been started yet. But. But do you have a very strong compass for the direction? Yes. Tell us. I cannot. That's what we're all here for. No, no, I have my own view. Go on. No, no. AAM is our core company, okay?
AAM is, has 99%, or should I say honestly almost 100% market share of all the mobile phone chip, 90% of any, you know, high end AI, IoT chip and all kinds of other chips. So ARM is going to become a centric chip company very soon. So that's one thing, okay? But there are robotics that I'm super interested in.
The AI robotics, not the traditional robotics. The artificial superintelligence comes and robotics come together, that will be a tremendous product. The fascinating thing about you is you have been there, you've done it, you've had the great success, you've had the follow on failures and you're doing it again. No, I.
In between, I had many mistakes like WeWork. And you know, does it annoy you? Does it annoy you when we, when people focus on WeWork, which was financially big but relatively insignificant in the great scheme of your finances. And yet everybody says, oh Masa, we work. Oh, Alibaba, it was lucky. Does that annoy you?
Well, you know, people should have their own freedom of thinking. I learned more and more by my mistake. And I almost went bankrupt twice right after the net bubble burst, right during the Riban crisis. I survived. I actually lost 99% of our company's value. But somehow I came back.
Did you lose that value because you took on too much risk or was it foolish or bad luck? I don't think, you know, I made that foolish mistake in the big sense. Net bubble crashed because people's view on the value of Internet company exceeded while the true value was still on this process. But at the end, Internet was not the bubble. Year 2000 was not bubble. After that, it's much bigger. So my general direction, I don't regret.
Now this is really important when we talk about AI, because if you take for example, Nvidia, the number of people who will say, oh, Nvidia's in trouble or Nvidia's got problem, blah blah blah blah or AIs. Really all that's happened is that the market has overvalued too soon. That's a good question. That's a good question.
Many people will still doubt. Okay, so I think Nvidia is undervalued. What? Undervalued on what basis? Because the future is much bigger. But the market's concentrating as we heard in a panel earlier. It's quarterly reports, it's. Oh, even Nvidia tells us that it's going to be longer and slower. We all get. Nvidia is just one example.
Right. What about the total, you know, Gen AI future? What is the value of the future? Is this a bubble today or not? Okay, some critics, the most negative guy says oh this Asia ASI in 10 years, maybe only 5% is actually useful or replacing people's job. But 95% still the same. No change. It takes time.
So I say, okay, let's accept the most negative critics view that is only 5% change, 95% unchanged. But what is that? You know, ASI investment required to take. Okay, 10,000 smarter than mankind. How many gigawatts? We were talking about gigawatts just before me. Yeah. I have predicted it will take 400 gigawatts of AI data centers power.
400 gigawatts. That's bigger than total US electricity. And it will require 200 million chip. Okay, the cumulative capex $9 trillion. $9 trillion. How do you recoup? How do you recoup? It's too much investment for many people's view. I say, I say it's still very reasonable. capex $9 trillion is not too big. Maybe too small.
You like to think big. Yeah, yeah. So let me say what is $9 trillion cumulative? But if the 5% of GDP in 10 years from today replaced by ASI, what is the number? Right. 5% of global GDP is $9 trillion. $9 trillion per year. If the ASI produce you $9 trillion per year cumulative investment of $9 trillion small money.
All right, small money, you recoup in one year for the total cumulative. So that means $9 trillion capex investment. You can depreciate one year revenue. That means like 50% profit. 50% profit. It is going to be $4 trillion net income per year. $4 trillion net income shared by New GAFA.
Four companies will take $1 trillion profit. And you want to be one of them. Of course. Right, of course. Before we finish, I just want to ask ask our AI friend here. The question I posed to our AI friend is, is Masason a guru when it comes to investing? I ask this question. Can we have the answer, please?
Masayoshi's son is definitely recognized as a guru of investment. His early $20 million investment in Alibaba grew to $75 billion by 2014, contributing significantly to SoftBank's success. However, for some other investments, there have been mixed results.
Thank you. With acquired. I've got a minute left. I've got a minute left. I want to ask you, after both difficult times, you went into a period of reflection and contemplation. You disappeared, you thought you went up a mountain, whatever. What did you learn about yourself?
Well, I say it's a good experience. Good experience that I get defeated, I get laughed, I get criticized. That make me think harder. That make me think I have to be stronger. And that's all good. I learn more, I think more. And before I go sleep, I have lots of concern. When I wake up, I wake up with big smile.
Ladies and gentlemen, Matzah. Thank you very much. Thank you very much.
Artificial Intelligence, Technology, Innovation, Softbank, Investment, Masayoshi Son, Fii Institute
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