ENSPIRING.ai: Will Putin rule Russia forever? Vladimir Putin and Russia's constitutional reforms - BBC Newsnight

ENSPIRING.ai: Will Putin rule Russia forever? Vladimir Putin and Russia's constitutional reforms - BBC Newsnight

This video provides a comprehensive analysis of Vladimir Putin's rise to power in Russia and examines how his leadership has transformed the political landscape over the years. It traces back to his origins as a KGB officer and how these experiences shaped his tactics in consolidating power within Russia. The narrative also sheds light on the complexities of Russia's transition post-Soviet Union, highlighting the chaotic period of Yeltsin's presidency and the belief that Putin would be a manageable puppet for the oligarchs, a perception that was quickly debunked as he strengthened his grip over Russian politics and economics.

The video showcases how, under Putin’s leadership, Russia has blended state control with oligarchic interests, ensuring political dominance while also hiding vast wealth through strategic international investments. A significant portion delves into how Russian investments in Western markets, like those in London, represented a broader strategic manipulation rather than pure economic integration. His maneuvering has been likened to the playbook learned during his KGB days, with his administration deploying financial and ideological tactics reminiscent of Cold War strategies.

Main takeaways from the video:

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Putin initially gained and maintained power by neutralizing threats, starting with influential oligarchs.
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Western economic interests facilitated Russia's strategic global economic interventions under Putin.
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Putin’s control in Russia reflects a broader narrative where stability is exchanged for reduced freedoms, with the populace accepting this trade-off for a "strong state."
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The influence of Russian funds and politics in Western markets and the perception of democracy in Russia are heavily influenced by KGB-like tactics.
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Key Vocabularies and Common Phrases:

1. referendum [ˌrɛfəˈrɛndəm] - (noun) - A general vote by the electorate on a single political question that has been referred to them for a direct decision. - Synonyms: (public vote, plebiscite, ballot)

This is not a referendum.

2. despot [ˈdɛspɒt] - (noun) - A ruler who holds absolute power, typically one who exercises it in a cruel or oppressive way. - Synonyms: (tyrant, autocrat, dictator)

Russia is not really a democracy, but this is not a despot.

3. neutralizing [ˈnjuːtrəlaɪzɪŋ] - (verb) - Rendering (someone or something) ineffective by applying an opposing force or effect. - Synonyms: (counteract, offset, nullify)

...he was neutralizing anyone who might present a challenge to his authority, starting with the oligarchs...

4. tacit [ˈtæsɪt] - (adjective) - Understood or implied without being stated. - Synonyms: (implicit, understood, unspoken)

Over the past 20 years, Putin and his former KGB associates have agreed a tacit bargain with the Russian people.

5. kleptocracy [klɛpˈtɒkrəsi] - (noun) - A government whose corrupt leaders use political power to appropriate the wealth of their nation. - Synonyms: (corruption, exploitative government, thievery)

But this was about more than just kleptocracy.

6. provocations [ˌprɒvəˈkeɪʃənz] - (noun) - Actions or speech that make someone annoyed or angry, especially deliberately. - Synonyms: (incitement, instigation, aggravation)

He is master of different provocations, of course, and pressure people.

7. simulacrum [ˌsɪmjʊˈleɪkrəm] - (noun) - An image or representation of someone or something, often suggesting a misleading or superficial likeness. - Synonyms: (imitation, semblance, facade)

In Russia's democratic simulacrum, you can vote how you like, but the result is always Putin.

8. blank slate [blæŋk sleɪt] - (noun phrase) - A fresh start or a new perspective devoid of pre-existing opinions or context. - Synonyms: (tabula rasa, clean slate, new beginning)

...someone who could be all things to all people, a blank slave.

9. strategic slush fund [strəˈtiːdʒɪk slʌʃ fʌnd] - (noun phrase) - A reserve of money used for illicit purposes, typically for influencing or manipulating political outcomes. - Synonyms: (covert fund, secret cash reserve, illicit financial pool)

...but also to have a stash of cash, a strategic slush fund, which they could eventually deploy against the west...

10. vassals [ˈvæsəlz] - (noun) - Individuals or entities in a subordinate position, often referring to those dependent on a more powerful figure. - Synonyms: (underlings, subjects, dependents)

...but loyal vassals to Putin's Kremlin.

Will Putin rule Russia forever? Vladimir Putin and Russia's constitutional reforms - BBC Newsnight

This is not a referendum. Russia is not really a democracy, but this is not a despot. And Russia's president is no dictator. Over the course of 20 years, Putin's image has evolved from grey man to strong man. In fact, he is neither. The truth is more complicated and more disturbing.

I was in Russia in 1999 when then President Yeltsin picked an unknown former KGB officer to be his heir apparent. And back then, pretty much everyone said the same thing about him. They picked him, they said, because hes a nobody, because they can control him. Hell never last. How wrong we all were.

To understand who Putin is and what Russia has become, you need to go back to the 1980s. According to the official narrative, in the dying days of the Cold War, Dresden was a backwater, and Vladimir Putin, the young KGB officer, was stuck in a dead end job. Hes spoken of being bored and drinking a bit too much beer, but its now emerging that quite the opposite was true.

During Putins time in Dresden, the KGB was busy smuggling new technology into the Soviet Union in defiance of western sanctions. According to Kathryn Belton, who spent two decades investigating their activities, the KGB and the Stasi had to cook up all these front companies and fake contracts so that they could sort of sidestep the western embargo and get these assets and technology across the wall. Many years later, these were skills that would prove useful.

But in the meantime, the communist bloc was crumbling, and parts of the KGB were actively preparing for the collapse of the Soviet Union. They were preparing the move to the market, but they also realized they needed to kind of start shifting assets so that they could preserve their intelligence networks even after a collapse of the communist regime.

When Boris Yeltsin saw off a coup attempt by hardliners, it looked like the power of the KGB had been broken. But in the decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russians saw the promise of western freedoms evaporate into lawlessness and economic collapse.

How has it happened that life here has become so dreadful? I'm 63, but I'm praying to God that I die soon so I won't have to suffer this torture anymore. Their president was ailing, sometimes drunk in public. A handful of oligarchs whod made billions out of the chaos of the transition to the free market were the ones really running the show.

Yeltsins replacement then had to be somebody who was young and healthy, acceptable to the oligarchs, and who didnt seem to pose a threat to Yeltsins, liberals, someone who could be all things to all people, a blank slave. He pretended to be a liberal to be a democrat.

Mikhail Kasyanov was Putin's first prime minister. Boris Yeltsin and myself, we were absolutely sure, or at least we wanted to be sure, that Putin will continue same policy. Same policy means a more consistent policy and more active policy of building up a democratic state with the free market economy. That's why I accepted Putin's proposal to be a prime minister. Working with him. I'll answer the question. I looked the man in the eye. I found it to be very straightforward.

During his first term, he made a good impression on western leaders, too. I was able to get a sense of his soul. But while Putin was busy making friends abroad, at home he was new, neutralizing anyone who might present a challenge to his authority, starting with the oligarchs whod helped put him in power.

The dramatic arrest of the richest man in Russia, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, seized at gunpoint by russian special forces, reads like something out of an Ian Fleming novel. Michal Khodorkovsky would spend ten years in jail, ostensibly for tax evasion and theft, while Putins allies dismantled his oil company, Yukos, and divvied up the spoils. It was a turning point.

I think it was the moment when they really sort of first tasted blood. They realized that they could take over the country's court system, that they could begin to pick off oligarchs one by one, that they were able to really kind of essentially assert their authority and begin to take over the economy.

But in the west, instead of shunning Russia for what was clearly a politically motivated prosecution, the opposite happened. International investors soon queued up for a piece of the action. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, now in exile in London, told me he believes that Putin took from that a key lesson, one that would influence much of what was to come.

Pontionia Karupza Katori Putin Polzutz as western investment flowed into Russia, attracted by rising oil prices, russian money went the other way, much of it finding its way into the city of London, attracted by light touch regulation.

We were meant to be the city on a hill that represented the economist version of globalization and the future of the world. Yeah. That Russia would become more integrated with the west through entering the London Stock Exchange and the London financial markets, the London property markets.

And this was the great dream that wed all come together, and slowly they would become more like us. And they did, but not quite in the way that some had hoped.

Leaks like the Panama Papers show the extent to which Putin and his associates have mastered the art of hiding vast amounts of cash in shell companies and offshore tax havens. A UK parliamentary report into russian influence in british politics, completed in October last year, remains unpublished.

The Kremlin twist on this is very subtle in the sense that they're like, yeah, we are going to become more like you, but you're a sham. Yeah, all that human rights stuff, that was just a mask in order to launch your imperialist wars against us.

All that stuff about democracy, free markets, leading to more, to more representation, all this kind of package of liberal democracy that you espouse is nonsense, actually. It's just a mask for corruption, rapaciousness, greed, cynicism.

But this was about more than just kleptocracy. Putin's men were taking over Russia's strategic cash flows, not purely just to enrich themselves, but also to have a stash of cash, a strategic slush fund, which they could eventually deploy against the west, that was buried already deep in western markets.

Whether it be through front companies, the LLP's that have been so widely used in London, or whether it be through russian oligarchs, who are certainly no longer oligarchs, but loyal vassals to Putin's Kremlin.

From the war in Ukraine to attempts to meddle in foreign elections, their methods are straight out of the old KGB playbook, the rules Putin learned in Dresden in the 1980s. He is master of different provocations, of course, and pressure people. Just buying people's loyalty, etcetera, combination of all those factors. It's all what just he was taught in KGB high school.

Those who have access to state funds can be called upon to use them in influence operations. The lines have become blurred between individual gain and what the Kremlin deems the national interest. I sometimes think it's helpful to see Putin not as an individual, but as the instrument through which power is exercised in Russia.

So in a country of weak institutions, Putin is, for good or for ill, an institution that is strong and that works. And for a small group of people around him, he allows them to maintain their power and wealth. But for many, many ordinary Russians, whether they like him or not, Putin is essentially all they've got.

There is no doubt about the outcome of this referendum. In Russia's democratic simulacrum, you can vote how you like, but the result is always Putin. Putin. Permistil strano kagda mishivo chromia ni samavo kimla sushis. Witnessed.

Over the past 20 years, Putin and his former KGB associates have agreed a tacit bargain with the Russian people. You get a strong state. We get rich. You lose some freedoms, but you gain some stability.

It is perhaps an understandable deal, given all that Russia has been through. But the trouble with a strong man is this. He's stable until suddenly he's nothing.

Politics, History, Leadership, Kgb, Putin, Russian Oligarchs, Bbc Newsnight