The video analyzes the political landscape during the 2020 United States presidential election amidst the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It depicts the shift in campaign dynamics as large rallies, such as Trump’s Tulsa rally, are limited, and highlights Joe Biden’s strategy of restraint, which appears to enhance his standing in key battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The pandemic’s impact, coupled with Trump's handling of it, contributes to the electoral mood, with public sentiment leaning toward the Democrats.

Election strategists and past Republican supporters, like those from The Lincoln Project, discuss their tactical efforts against Trump, outlining how they aim to exploit his weaknesses and impact his campaign focus. The discussions underscore the divisions within the Republican Party and explore how traditional party alignments are evolving. Insights are offered on how Trump’s response to various events, such as the pandemic and racial unrest following George Floyd's death, affected voters' perceptions, influencing polls and campaign strategies.

Main takeaways from the video:

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Key Vocabularies and Common Phrases:

1. upended [ʌpˈɛndɪd] - (verb) - To overthrow or overturn something. - Synonyms: (overturned, disrupted, reversed.)

Coronavirus has upended everything.

2. disconsolate [dɪsˈkɒnsələt] - (adjective) - Without comfort; unhappy. - Synonyms: (inconsolable, despondent, despairing.)

...he arrived back at the White House, it was the president, as we've never seen him, undone, disconsolate, disheveled, defeated.

3. galvanize [ˈɡælvəˌnaɪz] - (verb) - To stimulate or excite as if by an electric shock. - Synonyms: (motivate, inspire, spur.)

...the president hopes will galvanize what he calls the silent majority.

4. demographic [ˌdɛməˈɡræfɪk] - (noun) - A particular sector of a population. - Synonyms: (population, cohort, group.)

...the awoken, sleeping giant of the Democratic Party's kind of demographic...

5. referendum [ˌrɛfəˈrɛndəm] - (noun) - A general vote by the electorate on a single political question. - Synonyms: (plebiscite, popular vote, ballot.)

...if it is Trump versus Trump in November, in other words, a referendum on him, then he loses.

6. hyper politics [ˈhaɪ.pər ˈpɒl.ɪ.tɪks] - (noun) - An heightened level of political activity and interest. - Synonyms: (intense political engagement, political fervor, political intensity.)

There's also this new phenomenon that we've seen in this age of hyper politics in the United States...

7. realignment [ˌriː.əˈlaɪn.mənt] - (noun) - The process of changing or re-orienting policies or structure. - Synonyms: (restructuring, reorganization, reorientation.)

...the Republican Party is going through a, you know, a realignment is a civil war.

8. constitutionally [ˌkɒn.stɪˈtjuːʃənəli] - (adverb) - In a way that complies with the fundamental principles of a country. - Synonyms: (legally, lawfully, legitimately.)

We believe Donald Trump is morally, mentally, and constitutionally unfit to hold the office of president.

9. tracking poll [ˈtræk.ɪŋ poʊl] - (noun) - A poll repeated periodically with the same group of people to check and measure changes of opinion or knowledge. - Synonyms: (opinion survey, poll, public opinion study.)

In today's Rasmussen poll, which is the only daily tracking poll we have in the United States right now...

10. ideological [ˌaɪ.di.əˈlɒdʒ.ɪ.kəl] - (adjective) - Based on or relating to a system of ideas and ideals. - Synonyms: (philosophical, doctrinal, theoretical.)

...with the tea party and ideological primary challenges...

Can Donald Trump retain the presidency? - BBC Newsnight

This time four years ago, there was no mistaking that the US was in the midst of a brutal election battle, a fight to the death between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. But not now. Coronavirus has upended everything. If you want one image that encapsulates this, it's the aftermath of Donald Trump's Tulsa relaunch rally last month. An arena that held 20,000 was two thirds empty. And as he arrived back at the White House, it was the president, as we've never seen him, undone, disconsolate, disheveled, defeated. Was it the dawning realization that the way he'd hoped to fight for re election, with packed rallies, was in tatters? And Joe Biden, who retired to his basement in Wilmington initially out of medical necessity, was now staying there as a political choice. Hey, buddy, how are you? The less he said and did, the more his poll ratings went up. And with a hundred days to go, he seems to be ahead in all the key battlegrounds.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were the key states in giving Donald Trump an electoral college majority in polling that's been conducted there recently. Joe Biden is ahead. The president is behind. There are several other swing states where the Democrat is doing surprisingly well, and they include Florida. They include Arizona. They also include Texas, which has not voted for a Democrat for a very long time. There is a growing anxiety in the West Wing behind me. One senior adviser to the president told me last night that the polls showing him lagging behind are probably correct, but added that this is like a blind date and the american people haven't really clapped eyes on Joe Biden and don't know what he's like. Another senior adviser said that if it is Trump versus Trump in November, in other words, a referendum on him, then he loses. But if it's Trump versus Biden, then they stand a chance. That said, time is running out.

Our people want to get back on the coronavirus. Donald Trump's handling has been spasmodic as part of reopening America. Do you want to reopen the borders so that people from Europe, from the UK at the right time? How soon, actually? Well, I'm going to have to take a look. The briefings have returned, but much shorter than in season one, when they could go on for hours, as if he didn't want to go back to his office. Last week, it seemed he turned over a new leaf, much more focused on the science, much more message driven. But overnight, a fresh rash of tweets supporting unfounded conspiracy theories and the spike in cases are hitting republican areas particularly hard. And that could do him real harm.

And then there's race and the aftermath of the death of George Floyd. I am your president of law and order and an ally of all peaceful protesters. The riots that are taking place in Portland, Oregon, the president hopes will galvanize what he calls the silent majority. But what are the causes of the protests? What about racial injustice? Lying in state, in the capital Rotunda is John Lewis, the congressman who, alongside Martin Luther King Junior, was part of the 1963 march on Washington. He was a lion of the civil rights movement and the conscience of Congress. And thousands have been queuing to pay their last respects. But not the president. No, I won't be going.

No. Elections are about choices, left or right, one personality versus another, the devil you know, versus time for a change. A coronavirus vaccine may change the debate. Biden might stumble and fall, but as things stand, he's proving a frustrating and elusive enemy. And so, more than ever, November 2020 will all be about Donald Trump. Well, that was John Sople. And joining us now, former senior adviser to the Trump campaign, Barry Bennett, the pollster, Rachel Bitakoffer and election whisperer, her podcast. And Rick Wilson, founder of the Lincoln Project, the never Trumpers, whose viral ads you might have seen, have a quick look.

Millions worry that a loved one won't survive. Covid-19 there's mourning in America. And under the leadership of Donald Trump, our country is weaker and sicker and poorer. And now Americans are asking, if we have another four years like this, will there even be an America? We'll chat about those ads in a second, but I want to start with you, Rachel, if I can. Where do you think the race is now? What is it telling you? Yeah, so, you know, we came into the, to the spring with about a four point advantage for the democrats. Ended up being Joe Biden. I built into what I call the Trump effect, this backlash to Donald Trump, the awoken, sleeping giant of the Democratic Party's kind of demographic, you know, advantage that didn't really flex its muscle in 2016. It underperformed its potential and ended up waking up to Donald Trump being the president's kind of been rearing for a second chance. And then we combine that with this pandemic.

And I want to really stress that Trump could have benefited from the pandemic if he had handled it and managed it like some of the other presidents of other countries did. It's a terrible situation. And when a leader does manage a tough situation, well, voters tend to respond. But it's not just that. The american response has been bad or just, you know, it's been absolutely terrible and voters are well aware of it. So it has added about another four points or so. So we're really looking at an eight point on average advantage for democrats. And that is the kind of advantage that buys a really good fall for not only Biden, but also those Senate races that are so many people are looking at.

Let me ask Barry Bennett, are you nervous? This sounds like Donald Trump is in trouble. Well, you know, four years ago, we had almost numbers that were slightly even worse. So, nervous, no. Anxious to get started? Yes. But when you say nervous, no. You've heard the way Rachel described an advantage of four plus an advantage of another four after a disastrous handling of a pandemic. I'm wondering what is going to excite people about the president right now. Well, Hillary Clinton was leading in the same polls by as many as twelve. So there's a structural issue with polling, period. There's also this new phenomenon that we've seen in this age of hyper politics in the United States, where there was a poll where 65% of the people said they wouldn't tell people what their political views are because they didn't want to be called names. So it's affecting polling, particularly on the republican side. So I'm anxious. No. Want to get started? Yes.

Yeah. Rachel, very briefly back to you. Maybe people don't trust pollsters and maybe they're all lying. Yeah. No. One thing that I'd really like to reiterate in 2016, a big fundamental driver was the fact that both candidates were extremely disliked. It's very atypical to have that kind of condition in an election, and this just not the case. I mean, nobody's loved in american politics anymore with polarization. So your goal is to be less vilified than your opponent. And it's something that Democrats have achieved with nominating Biden. And so what we're seeing in the polling data is very, very distinct. And in 2016, we had double and if not triple the amount of undecided voters even coming down the stretch. And we are not seeing that in this data. We are seeing very, very stable numbers. So nobody's undecided.

Rick, let me go to you. The adverts of the Lincoln project are intensely personal. They're kind of brainworm, aren't they? I'm wondering whether they're trying to get the public on side or just embarrass the man at the center. Well, the ads the Lincoln Project has executed so far fall into two main categories. One category are the ads that are psychological warfare on Donald Trump. And they work. They work like a charm. They ended up having Donald Trump fire his campaign manager, in part because of advertising work we did against him. We end up being able to get Donald Trump to spend 15 minutes on a stage defending the fact that we ran an ad showing him having trouble walking down a ramp. We do this over and over again, and it's got a strategic reason. We're not just trolling the president. We're doing this strategically because every day that Donald Trump spends locked in, into his little bubble, watching our ads, spending money against this ad work we're doing against him is a day he's not on Joe Biden. It's a day he's not doing the rest of the things he should be doing as a campaigner.

So can I just clarify, Rick, just, you know, you're a senior Republican strategist, but you are asking people to vote Democrat. I am. We are. The Lincoln Project has endorsed Joe Biden not because we believe in every single policy position Joe Biden holds, but we believe that Joe Biden is a vastly less risky proposition for this country going forward. We believe Donald Trump is morally, mentally, and constitutionally unfit to hold the office of president. He's a danger to this country. He acts counter to its interests at every turn. Ok. And we believe that.

Let me go back to Barry Bennett. What happens when it's Republicans sending out that message about the republican president? These so called Republicans were all against Trump four years ago as well. There's nothing new here. And now they just got some Democrat money that they're throwing at television, which is, by the way, horribly ineffective, but very effective at lining their own pockets. It doesn't sound like it's effective if it's actually diverting Trump's messaging in his rallies to talk about the stuff that's in the adverts. He wants to take credit for Brad Pascal getting fired. I mean, that's ridiculous. That's absurd. Barry, we did it. Trust. Your campaign is trying to hunt down the leakers inside. They gave us the bread. We can't hit both of you. Let me just let Barry finish, please. I mean, this. Rick. Rick, was Ben adamantly against Trump all the way back to 2015, probably even before that, as has Stewart and all these other guys. I mean, it's absurd. There's nothing new here.

All that's new is they now have some Democrat money that they're using, but their ads are completely ineffective. Like I said, like Rachel just said, there was nobody undecided, almost no one isn't the problem that you asked people, you asked republican voters to lend Joe Biden the vote this time round, they might never go back. You might lose the Republican Party for good like this if you're effective. Trump already lost the Republican Party. The Republican party. Donald Trump was like a parasite that crawled inside the Gopdhead, ate it from the inside out, and replaced it with an authoritarian, narcissistic personality cult.

There is no republican party any longer. None of the things that we claim to believe in, limited government, constitutional fealty, rule of law, fiscal responsibility, none of those things are in any way related to Donald Trump's policies. His policies are those of the authoritarian. Well, and so let me go to Rachel.

Yeah, let me bring in Rachel. Do Americans still define themselves as Democrats or Republicans? Does Republicans still have meaning? Or do you agree with Rick that the party is as we have known it, no longer exists? Oh, yeah. No. I mean, I'm going to come at this as a political scientist that's an expert in this area. This is what I study. And you know what, Rick? I mean, these guys, these guys are both coming from, you know, being in the party. So it's a very different perspective. I'm talking about it as a social scientist. And this is well documented. I mean, the Republican Party, and this is, you know, the Democrats went through this in the 1960s, that the Republican Party is going through a, you know, a realignment is a civil war. It started as a rebellion with the tea party and ideological primary challenges and slowly built up. But with Donald Trump, it was like kind of an all hands on deck effort to stop him from winning the party nomination. But he did win. And since then becoming president, the party has abandoned its previous, you know, some of these previous core philosophies to align with the president. And that's when, you know, Rick, I mean, it's one, you know, it is true that Rick and his cohort in the Lincoln project are former Republicans, but it's probably important to keep point out we are talking about key members of the Republican Party that are now expats. And they are actually just one element from the campaign world. But we've also seen national security, intellectual conservatives. I mean, some of the core factors.

Let me get back to Barry. Does it, does it worry you, Barry, that you, you appear to be losing big tranches of the party at a time like this? Not all. In today's Rasmussen poll, which is the only daily tracking poll we have in the United States right now, Donald Trump does better amongst Republicans as Joe Biden does against Democrats. So, I mean, this is a myth. Do you think that there are still undecided voters out there, or do you think more people might be aligning themselves now if the polling is right, as Rachel said, as Democrat?

Well, I believe they're not aligning themselves as Democrat. What we've seen of anything by registration numbers are the Democrat numbers are down in the key states. What they're doing is they're in some kind of middle spot where you've got all these people, like in Ohio, for instance, Youngstown and Pike county, where it used to be Democrat strongholds, which are no longer right. The people haven't changed. It's the same people. They're just voting differently. They haven't called themselves Republicans yet, but they're headed that way.

When you talk about voting difficult differently, one of the big things that we will see, Rachel, very briefly, is the postal vote and what Corona is doing to that. We could have up to, what, 180 million Americans voting by mail this time round. How will that change things? Yeah, I mean, number one, I think we need to really start normalizing in America the idea that we're not going to have results on election night. And I think it's unfortunate. I mean, the president does utilize vote by mail or absentee voting, and many, many people do because they aren't living at home or their job takes them out of town or they're serving in the military overseas. So voting by mail is very common. It's very secure. It's a tracking system for each ballot. You can actually track your ballot all the way in through the system. And we just need to normalize that process, make sure people understand it will take a long time to count the ballots. Right. So we won't realistically, we won't get that result on election night.

Let me ask. We will know, we will have a very good sense because there are states that aren't making much change, you know, for political reasons. But like, let's say in Texas, I mean, Texas is one of those states. And if we're seeing a, you know, Donald Trump either carrying that state by a very narrow margin or, you know, even losing it, I mean, that's going to tell us a lot about the rest of the country. So we would, I mean, let me go to Rick.

Joe Biden has said his biggest worry this time around is that the president will not recognize the results of the November election. What do you do with that? Well, look, I think Donald Trump is a gambler. He's a day trader. And if this is a close election in the electoral college. He will try to find a way through hooker by crook to stay in office. He will try to find a way to manipulate the media environment around him enough to say the election was stolen from me. The election was fraudulent. He will fight it until the last dog dies. Now, I think that it's telling that every time he's been asked, he's only been asked a couple times. Now, will you acknowledge the results of the election? He is hemmed and hawed and tried to evade the question. And it is a meaningful question for this president. And it tells us he's a guy who destroys norms and institutions everywhere he goes. He corrupts the system everywhere he goes. The rule of law means nothing to him. So I think there's a meaningful chance, if it's close, that he will try to stay in office.

We're out of time, but Rick Wilson, Barry Bennett, Rachel Bitter coffer, thank you all very much indeed. Thanks for joining us.

Politics, Leadership, Global, Us Election 2020, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Bbc Newsnight