The discussion in this video addresses the potential for conflict between major global powers, specifically the United States and China, focusing on the geopolitical issue of Taiwan. An exploration into the "thucydides trap" highlights the historical challenges of rival powers avoiding escalation to war, drawing parallel comparisons between ancient Athens and Sparta with the U.S. and China. These reflections suggest that similar historical patterns may risk materializing today unless strategic and diplomatic avenues are explored.

The conversation also underscores the cultural dynamics and perceptions between the U.S. and China. It emphasizes the importance of understanding China's internal focus and non-expansive history, which could bode well for peaceful relations. The differences in cultural understanding and appreciation are posed as opportunities to bridge gaps, highlighting mutual benefits and cooperation in broader economic and societal spheres.

Main takeaways from the video:

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Key Vocabularies and Common Phrases:

1. thucydides trap [θjuːˈsɪdɪdiːz træp] - (noun) - The idea that when one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result. - Synonyms: (geopolitical trap, conflict scenario, power struggle)

Well, it's worth reading that book on the difficult to pronounce thucydides trap, I believe it's called.

2. verbose [vərˈboʊs] - (adjective) - Using more words than necessary; wordy. - Synonyms: (wordy, lengthy, long-winded)

The Spartans didn't write. They also weren't very verbose by their nature.

3. acquisitive [əˈkwɪzɪtɪv] - (adjective) - Having a strong desire to acquire or possess things. - Synonyms: (greedy, covetous, grasping)

The good news? The history of China suggests that China is not acquisitive.

4. benevolent [bəˈnɛvələnt] - (adjective) - Well meaning and kindly. - Synonyms: (kind, charitable, generous)

America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force.

5. incorporate [ɪnˈkɔːrpəreɪt] - (verb) - To include something as part of a whole. - Synonyms: (integrate, include, absorb)

China has been very clear that they will incorporate Taiwan peacefully or militarily.

6. conspicuous [kənˈspɪkjuəs] - (adjective) - Easily seen or noticed; attracting special attention. - Synonyms: (noticeable, obvious, evident)

This is very unusual behavior, almost unprecedented. The US did conspicuous acts of kindness, like the Berlin airlift.

7. reverberate [rɪˈvɜːrbəreɪt] - (verb) - To echo or resound repeatedly or continuously. - Synonyms: (echo, resonate, resound)

It just seems like conspicuous acts of kindness can reverberate through the populace of the countries involved and deescalate.

8. escalation [ˌɛskəˈleɪʃən] - (noun) - A rapid increase or rise; intensification. - Synonyms: (intensification, increase, buildup)

Absolutely. So after World War one, they made a big mistake.

9. reparation [ˌrɛpəˈreɪʃən] - (noun) - Compensation demanded from a defeated nation. - Synonyms: (compensation, restitution, payment)

They basically tried to lump all the blame on Germany and saddle Germany with impossible reparations.

10. monolithic [mɒnəˈlɪθɪk] - (adjective) - Largely unchanging and uniform; solid and unyielding. - Synonyms: (uniform, rigid, inflexible)

It's important to appreciate that China is not monolithic.

Elon Musk - Things Most People Don't Know About China

You've spoken honestly about the possibility of war between us and China in the long term if no diplomatic solution is found, for example, on the question of Taiwan and one China policy. Right. How do we avoid the trajectory where these two superpowers clash? Well, it's worth reading that book on the difficult to pronounce thucydides trap, I believe it's called. I love war history. I like inside out and backwards. There's hardly a battle I haven't read about and trying to figure out what really was the cause of victory in any particular case, as opposed to what one side or another claimed, the reason, both the victory and what sparked the war. Yeah, the whole thing. Yeah.

So Athens and Sparta is a classic case. The thing about the Greeks is they really wrote down a lot of stuff. They loved writing. There are lots of interesting things that happen in many parts of the world, but people just didn't write down. So we don't know what happened, or they didn't really write in detail. They just would say, like, we went, we had a battle and we won, and, like, what? Can you add a bit more? The Greeks, they really wrote a lot. They were very articulate on. They just love writing, so. And we have a bunch of that writing that's preserved. So we know what led up to the peloponnesian war between the spartan and athenian alliance, and we know that they saw it coming. The Spartans didn't write. They also weren't very verbose by their nature, but they did write, but they weren't very verbose. They were terse. But the Athenians and the other Greeks wrote a line, and they were like.

And Sparta was really kind of like the leader of Greece. But Athens grew stronger and stronger with each passing year, and everyone was like, well, that's inevitable, that there's going to be a clash between Athens and Sparta. Well, how do we avoid that? And actually, they saw it coming and they still could not avoid it. So at some point, if there's a. If one group, one civilization or country or whatever exceeds another, sort of like, the united States has been the biggest kid on the block since, I think, around 1890, from an economic standpoint. So the United States has been the most powerful economic engine in the world longer than anyone's been alive. And the foundation of war is economics. So now we have a situation, in the case of China, where the economy is likely to be two, perhaps three times larger than that of the US.

So imagine you're the biggest kid on the block for as long as anyone can remember, and suddenly a kid comes along, he's twice your size, so we see it coming. Yeah. How is it possible to stop? Is there some. Let me throw something out there. Just intermixing of cultures, understanding. There does seem to be a giant cultural gap in understanding of each other. And you're an interesting case study because you are an american. Obviously, you've done a lot of incredible manufacture here in the United States, but you also work with China. I've spent a lot of time in China and met with the leadership many times.

Maybe a good question to ask is, what are some things about China that people don't understand? Positive. Just in the culture. What's some interesting things that you've learned about the Chinese? Well, the sheer number of really smart, hardworking people in China is incredible. There are really. If you say, like, how many smart, hardworking people are there in China? There's far more of them there than there are here, I think, in my opinion. And they've got a lot of energy. So, I mean, the architecture in China that's in recent years is far more impressive than the US. I mean, the train stations, the buildings, the high speed rail, everything, it's really far more impressive than what we have in the US. I mean, I recommend somebody just go to Shanghai and Beijing, look at the buildings, and go to take the train from Beijing to Xi'an, where you have the terracotta warriors.

China's got an incredible history, very long history. And I think, arguably, in terms of the use of language from a written standpoint, sort of one of the oldest, perhaps the oldest written language. And then China, people did write things down. China historically has always been, with the rare exception, been internally focused. They have not been acquisitive. They've fought each other. There have been many, many civil wars in the three kingdoms war. I believe they lost about 70% of their population. So they've had brutal internal wars, like civil wars, that make the US civil war look small by comparison.

So I think it's important to appreciate that China is not monolithic. We sort of think of China as this sort of one entity, of one mind, and this is definitely not the case from what I've seen. And I think most people who understand China would agree that people in China think about China ten times more than they think about anything outside of China. So it's like 90% of their consideration is internal.

Well, isn't that a really positive thing when you're talking about the collaboration and the future peace between superpowers? When you're inward facing, which is like focusing on improving yourself versus focusing on, quote unquote, improving others through military might. The good news? The history of China suggests that China is not acquisitive, meaning they're not going to go out and invade a whole bunch of countries. Now, they do feel very strongly. So that's good, because a lot of very powerful countries have been acquisitive.

The US is also one of the rare cases that has not been acquisitive. After World War Two, the US could have basically taken over the world and any country. We got nukes. Nobody else got nukes. We don't even have to lose soldiers. Which country do you want? And the United States could have taken over everything. Oh, at will. And it didn't. The United States actually helped revolt countries. It helped rebuild Europe, helped revolt Japan. This is very unusual behavior, almost unprecedented. The US did conspicuous acts of kindness, like the Berlin airlift.

You know, and I think, you know, it's always like, well, America's done bad things. Well, of course America's done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, you know, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let's say, no offense to the Russians, but let's say you're in Germany. It's 1945. You got the russian army coming on one side, you got the french, british and american armies coming the other side. Who would you like to be? To surrender to no country is morally perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice. Very strongly in the full menu of POW.

Very much so. And in fact, von der. Von Braun, smart guy, was like, we've got to be captured by the Americans. And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the german rock engineers, and they narrowly escaped their SSI. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and they ran like, with no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran west and vice chair, like his brother found like a bicycle or something, and then just cycled west as fast as he could and found a us patrol.

So anyway, that's one way you can tell morality is, where do you want to be a PW? It's not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self critical and try to be better. But anyone with half a brain knows that.

So I think there are in this way China and the United States are similar. Neither country has been acquisitive in a significant way. So that's like a shared principle, I guess. Now, China does feel very strongly about Taiwan, been very clear about that for a long time. From their standpoint, it would be like one of the states is not there, like Hawaii or something like that, but more significant than Hawaii. And Hawaii is pretty significant for us.

They view it as really, there's a fundamental part of China, the island of Formosa. Now, Taiwan, that is not part of China, but should be. And the only reason it hasn't been is because the US Pacific fleet, and as their economic power grows and as their military power grows, the thing that they're clearly saying is their interest will, you know, clearly be materialized. Yes. China has been very clear that they will incorporate Taiwan peacefully or militarily, but that they will incorporate it, from their standpoint, is 100% likely.

Something you said about conspicuous acts of kindness as a geopolitical policy. It almost seems naive, but I'd venture to say that this is probably the path forward, how you avoid most wars. Just as you say it, it sounds naive, but it's kind of brilliant if you believe in the goodness of underlying most of human nature. It just seems like conspicuous acts of kindness can reverberate through the populace of the countries involved and deescalate.

Absolutely. So after World War one, they made a big mistake. They basically tried to lump all the blame on Germany and saddle Germany with impossible reparations. And really there was a lot of. There was quite a bit of blame to go around for World War one, but they tried to put it all in Germany, and that laid the seeds for world War two.

So a lot of people were not just Hitler, a lot of people felt wronged and they wanted vengeance, and they got it. People don't forget. Yeah, you kill somebody's father, mother, son, daughter, they're not going to forget it. They all want vengeance.

So after World War two, they're like, well, the treaty of Versailles was a huge mistake in World War one. And so this time, instead of crushing the losers, we're actually going to help them with the Marshall plan, and we're going to help rebuild Germany. We're going to help revolt Austria and the other Italy and whatnot.

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