This video provides a detailed analysis of the recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, focusing on Ukraine's successful covert drone attacks deep into Russian territory. These strikes, such as Operation Spider's Web, damaged significant portions of Russia's strategic bomber fleet and cost Russia billions, while Ukraine's expenditure per drone remained minimal. Despite these setbacks for Russia and a boost in Ukraine's military reputation, these operations are assessed as unlikely to force a major shift in Russia's strategic stance or bring about immediate peace negotiations.

The discussion highlights the stalemate in peace talks, with Moscow and Kyiv remaining far apart on core demands and conditions. President Trump’s stance is explored, showing his frustration and fluctuating engagement—sometimes showing support for Ukraine's military achievements but often reluctant to escalate sanctions against Russia or increase US military aid. Meanwhile, Putin continues to manage domestic perceptions by framing responses as counterterrorism and appears to be waiting for further battlefield gains before making major concessions.

Main takeaways from the video:

Please remember to turn on the CC button to view the subtitles.

Key Vocabularies and Common Phrases:

1. covert [ˈkoʊ.vɚt] - (adjective) - Not openly shown, engaged in, or avowed; secret or hidden. - Synonyms: (clandestine, secret, undercover, surreptitious)

Ukraine executed a complex drone attack on Russia spanning across multiple military bases there deep within the country. And this damaged dozens of Russian aircraft a few days out. What do you think the impact is of this covert operation?

2. retaliate [rɪˈtæl.i.eɪt] - (verb) - To make an attack or assault in return for a similar attack. - Synonyms: (avenge, reciprocate, strike back, respond)

But so far, I think Moscow's response is going to remain conventional, retaliating with attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, which is what we've seen over the last couple of days especially.

3. ultimatum [ˌʌl.tɪˈmeɪ.təm] - (noun) - A final demand or statement of terms, the rejection of which will result in retaliation or a breakdown in relations. - Synonyms: (demand, final offer, last word, decree)

Now, President Zelensky, on the other hand, has outright dismissed these terms as ultimatums and not a genuine memorandum, which was how Russia had publicly tried to present the terms of.

4. optics [ˈɑːp.tɪks] - (noun) - The way in which an event or course of action is perceived by the public. - Synonyms: (appearance, perception, impression, public image)

But even so, in terms of the optics, these sorts of operations, such as the Spider's Web, do help Ukraine a great deal.

5. blip [blɪp] - (noun) - A temporary or insignificant occurrence, often one that interrupts a trend. - Synonyms: (anomaly, glitch, aberration, interruption)

But when we talk about optics, certainly the optics look better right now short term for Ukraine, but it's also not going to have a massive, any massive implications for Putin himself because he tends to bounce back pretty quickly from these sorts of, you know, a faux pas, a blip here and there.

6. non-committal [ˌnɒn.kəˈmɪt.əl] - (adjective) - Not expressing or revealing commitment to a definite opinion or course of action. - Synonyms: (guarded, evasive, ambiguous, vague)

He's very non committal when it comes to sort of buying into any pressure or, you know, any concessions from, from the US Side.

7. ceasefire [ˈsiːs.faɪr] - (noun) - A temporary suspension of fighting; a truce. - Synonyms: (truce, armistice, suspension of hostilities, peace agreement)

So we should probably expect Kyiv to keep up these types of operations to pressure Moscow toward an unconditional ceasefire.

8. sweeping [ˈswiː.pɪŋ] - (adjective) - Wide in range or effect; extensive. - Synonyms: (comprehensive, broad, extensive, wide-ranging)

Earlier this week, as our viewers may already know, Senator Lindsey Graham actually introduced a bill proposing sweeping new sanctions on Russia, and the bill does enjoy significant support in the Senate.

9. appetite [ˈæp.ə.taɪt] - (noun) - A strong desire or liking for something, especially something important or difficult. - Synonyms: (desire, inclination, eagerness, enthusiasm)

But based on these recent comments, do you think he has a lot of appetite for slapping Russia with a lot of sanctions?

10. normalization [ˌnɔːr.mə.ləˈzeɪ.ʃən] - (noun) - The process of bringing or returning something to a normal condition or state, especially in international relations. - Synonyms: (restoration, regularization, stabilization, standardization)

But there's also that other track of US Russia normalization, which certainly has not made any significant progress.

11. grandiose [ˈɡræn.di.oʊs] - (adjective) - Impressive and imposing in appearance or style, especially pretentiously so. - Synonyms: (magnificent, imposing, ostentatious, showy)

How much Russia is able to gain over the coming weeks, over the next couple of months is going to matter a great deal because Vladimir Putin does have a grandiose appetite, that is true.

12. policymaking [ˈpɑː.lə.siˌmeɪ.kɪŋ] - (noun) - The activity of formulating policies, especially in politics or business. - Synonyms: (decision-making, governance, lawmaking, administration)

And eventually it comes down to the military situation on the battlefield and what's happening on the battlefield as well as what is happening behind closed doors in terms of diplomacy and politicking.

Trump Compares Russia-Ukraine War To Kids Brawling— What Does That Signal About The Fight's Future?

Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is Tennantin Japarize, analyst with Eurasia Group. Tinintin, thank you so much for joining me. Thank you so much, Brittany. It's great to be back.

As always, I want to start the conversation with recent developments in the Russia Ukraine war, because over the weekend, Ukraine executed a complex drone attack on Russia spanning across multiple military bases there deep within the country. And this damaged dozens of Russian aircraft a few days out. What do you think the impact is of this covert operation? Do you think this is a real turning point in the war?

Well, Brittany, I think that paired with the June 3 strike on the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula, Operation Spider's Web and these incidents together have clearly embarrassed Moscow and brought significant attention to Ukraine's military capabilities, both key objectives for Kyiv. But as a quick reminder for our viewers, as you said, the Operation spider's web on June 1 reportedly damaged at least 10% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet across four distant airfields far away from the Russia Ukraine border. This is not insignificant at all, of course, particularly given how this operation was plotted and eventually pulled off in a remarkable manner by the Ukrainian side. But even so, when we look at the bigger picture, these incidents are unlikely to alter Putin's position. There's been a lot of speculation lately about whether such attacks might might trigger Russia toward using tactical nuclear weapons. But so far, I think Moscow's response is going to remain conventional, retaliating with attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, which is what we've seen over the last couple of days especially. So we should probably expect Kyiv to keep up these types of operations to pressure Moscow toward an unconditional ceasefire. But in terms of this moving the needle for the Russian side in particular, I don't think that is going to happen anytime soon.

I want to talk about the timing of this, particularly because I think that's a really interesting take because the operation reportedly cost Russia billions of dollars with their aircraft being damaged. Reportedly it cost Ukraine $1,000 or a couple thousand at most per drone to launch this type of attack. So is this devastation, you don't think it's enough for Russia to say, you know what, we don't have the cards anymore, we're going to come to the table and negotiate in good faith? We. You're thinking that's not going to happen? I don't think so. And I think we saw that on Monday, actually. So after the two sides traded some of the most intense airstrikes air attacks of the war. Moscow and Kyiv still proceeded with their scheduled meeting in Istanbul, as you know. But the talks, you know, even though they did result in an agreement to exchange more prisoners, which is great in and of itself, of course. But in terms of the broader peace process, the gulf between Moscow and Kyiv remains as wide as ever. Russia is still demanding that Ukrainian for withdraw from the key cities and regions that Russia continues to occupy partially in Ukraine. They also still demand that Ukraine forego any military alliances in terms of continued Western military support and that all sanctions against Russia be lifted. Now, President Zelensky, on the other hand, has outright dismissed these terms as ultimatums and not a genuine memorandum, which was how Russia had publicly tried to present the terms of. So there's just so much here in terms of the disconnect between the two sides for them to be able to come together, even symbolically, to have a tangible discussion about a real truce and not just a conversation about another conversation to be had, that I think we are still ways away and it'll take a lot for Russia to feel the pressure that they need to feel for them to be forced and into concessions. That is something that President Trump has tried to do, as we've talked about this extensively in the past. And I do feel that Putin is just not there, especially because he's got the summer ahead of him, summer of intense fighting. And I think that's where he is going to be banking on more progress on the front lines, on the battlefield before he really feels like he needs to come to the table and talk.

I do want to talk about Ukraine's perspective because this has really been a David and Goliath story ever since February 2022, when the entire world expected Ukraine to roll over after Russia invaded. I mean, that wasn't the case. And then we see this covert operation over three years after the war began. Back in February of 2025, President Trump had that contentious White House meeting with President Zelensky. He told him that the president of Ukraine didn't have the cards to play. But it does seem like they did have the cards to play because they were able to launch this really successful covert operation. What do you make of Ukraine's position now?

Well, Ukraine is trying to do what they can compared to Russia. They do have more limited options and more limited tools to play with. But we also have to be very objective and admit that they actually are very creative when they do pull it off. They do pull it off beautifully. We remember the big 2022 counter offensive that was Huge. That surprised everybody, I think, to a degree. It also surprised the Ukrainians themselves. So when they are able to sit down and pull something off that's big, it's usually huge. Because we always, and not just us, but especially Vladimir Putin in Russia, continues to underestimate how much Ukraine is able to achieve. However, Brittany, we also cannot forget the fact that Ukraine can continue to achieve, achieve this big, these big milestones and operations that it's able to pull off with Western support. So if there is going to be diminished Western support, and here I'm talking mostly about the United States diminishing its support compared to what we've seen under Biden Harris over the last couple of years, that will, of course, start to show. And I think that President Zelensky is trying to do what he can, and they're trying to fire quite literally and figuratively from every possible cylinder at their disposal to do what they can to maximize their gains. Just even in terms of the optics, I'm not talking about gains, militarily speaking, because obviously Russia still has the upper hand there. And it is very likely, as you and I discussed last time, that there will be another Russian offensive in the summer. It has in many ways started already, so we are unlikely to see any massive Ukrainian gains on that front. But even so, in terms of the optics, these sorts of operations, such as the Spider's Web, do help Ukraine a great deal. And in many ways, they also are trying to show the likes of President Trump of what they're capable of, that, you know, if only we, Ukraine, had more military support from the U.S. just imagine what we could do. And Trump, as we both know, responds to this very, very well. And we've heard some rumors that he was apparently very, very impressed with what Ukraine was able to pull off to that point.

The optics for Ukraine look great over this attack that they were able to pull off this really covert operation and really do a lot of damage to Russia. On the other hand, the optics don't look good for Russia. As you said, Moscow was embarrassed over this. In a phone call between President Trump and Putin, President Trump said that Putin said he's going to have to respond in some way. The Russian Ministry of Defense called this operation terrorist attacks. I mean, what do you think that response really looks like?

Well, we already saw that on Friday with Russia launching its largest assault in recent months. They fired about 44 missiles deployed over 400 drones at Ukraine. And this was in many ways a very, very direct response to the Operation Spider's Web from five days earlier. So this is one of those times when Putin actually came out and let us know that he was going start firing missiles and deploying more drones into Ukraine very explicitly. And he was very vocal about it. But of course, at home, he has to continuously present this as a sort of counter terrorism operation in many ways, because this helps him. I don't know how successful he is, but it does help him in a way to justify the attacks against neighboring Ukraine because he is able to say, look, these are terrorist attacks. You remember from many years ago, we saw something very similar when Russia launched two wars against Chechnya within the Russian Federation. And that was the same sort of a rhetoric, the same narrative that Putin used that he was fighting against terrorism and he had no other choice but to fight terrorists in their own language, using their own means. So here we're seeing Vladimir Putin doing something very, very similar when he tries to sort of present his attacks as counterterrorism, a counter terrorism operation. I don't know whether this is necessarily massively successful in terms of domestic consumption, but there is a great deal of Russians and the Russian public that is responding to this. And also it helps them to avoid a cognitive dissonance of why are they, the Russians, fighting against their neighbor with whom they've shared the border, shared their culture, shared everything for so many decades and centuries. So in many ways, I do think that, you know, perhaps what has happened in the last week was a massive blow in terms of Putin's reputation. But when we talk about optics, certainly the optics look better right now short term for Ukraine, but it's also not going to have a massive, any massive implications for Putin himself because he tends to bounce back pretty quickly from these sorts of, you know, a faux pas, a blip here and there.

I want to talk now about how President Trump and his recent comments really factor in here, because he's been a little back and forth before. He was really, really critical of President Zelensky. Then he said, we remember him posting on social media, Vladimir, stop. He said he was really annoyed with Vladimir Putin to reporters. Now he's saying this week that he had a phone call with Vladimir Putin after that attack, and he characterized the call as, quote, not a conversation that will lead to immediate peace. So he's not saying cease fire now. He's not saying, we need peace now. He's saying, essentially, he's admitting we're not having peace anytime soon. What do you make of these types of comments?

And on top of that, Brittany, he also said his comments during the Oval Office meeting with German Chancellor Mertz that, you know, this was very telling to me in terms of his of sense headspace as of right now, which we know very well could shift overnight if and when something changes. But he did suggest that it might actually be preferable to let Ukraine and Russia fight for a while. And this is a direct quote from President Trump before the US Intervenes to broker peace, comparing the conflict to two children working out their differences on the playground before adults step in. So this is very telling of how much as of right now, anyway, the way that President Trump is saying, thinking about the war and especially ending the war has changed a great deal from his campaign rhetoric where he claimed that he could end the war in 24 hours. And by the way, he also said over the last couple of days that the statement was essentially made sarcastically, which is very different from what he's been saying over the last few months. And I mean, that makes that boils this war down to a very trivial matter, comparing this war to two kids just having a little fist fight on the playground. I mean, who does he think the adults are that need to step in? Is he saying that's the United States and Europe? I mean, and when does do you think President Trump now wants to step in? How is he viewing himself in these peace talks now, based on these recent comments?

I think the last couple of days compared to what we've seen over the last four months into his second term, President Trump has been treating the conflict as more of a, I would say bystander than an active mediator, because he seems to be visibly frustrated. And I would say that he's more frustrated right now with President Putin rather than with President Zelensky, even though he is usually far more critical of President Zelensky when it comes to his public statements. But in terms of his frustration with his Russian counterpart, I think he was hoping that in many ways he could have convinced Putin because of this relationship that he has often talked about with great pride, that he has a friendship with Putin. They have worked with each other in the past during his first term, and he somehow felt that he would be able to talk him into a deal. But so far, Putin has actually been the bigger diplomat here, where on the one hand, you see that he continues the engagement with the United States with President Trump specifically, he keeps meeting with President Trump's envoys and he's sort of showing up at the meetings, he's picking up the phone phone when he gets the call from Washington, but that's about it. He's very non committal when it comes to sort of buying into any pressure or, you know, any concessions from, from the US Side. Because he, he feels that what the US Is offering right now is just not worth halting the operation that he has started the war in Ukraine. He still wants to get more out of the Ukrainians, and at the same time, he's not burning the bridge with the US So I would go so far as to say that he is so far outsmarting everybody else in the room. Now onto your earlier question, Brittany. In terms of who President Trump thinks should be the adult in the room when the two kids are fighting on, on the playground, it's interesting because it's almost a twofold approach for President Trump, it seems. On the one hand, he wants the one who brokers the peace, an actual end of the war, to be the United States for obvious reasons. But when it comes to getting, getting one's hands dirty in terms of supplying more military aid, helping with frontline operations, supporting the war directly, he wants Europe to do their part. So he just wants to be there for the big meetings and the big celebrations and the big statements. But in terms of fighting this war with Ukraine, he feels that, geographically speaking, this is Europe's problem, not America's problem, and it should be fought by Europe and the US can negotiate and help negotiate peace. But that's really about it right now in terms of what he thinks should be done by Washington.

Every analyst and expert I've talked to have agreed that the only way Russia is really going to come to the table in a meaningful way is if the United States and Europe puts really tough economic sanctions on them. And we know that President Trump has mulled over the possibility of sanctions within recent weeks. But based on these recent comments, do you think he has a lot of appetite for slapping Russia with a lot of sanctions? I don't think so. I think he's quite reluctant to escalate sanctions vis a vis Russia. Ukraine, of course, hopes that ramped up military pressure might lead the west, especially the US to adopt a tougher stance on Russia. Recent events, so far at least, have not moved President Trump toward imposing new sanctions. Earlier this week, as our viewers may already know, Senator Lindsey Graham actually introduced a bill proposing sweeping new sanctions on Russia, and the bill does enjoy significant support in the Senate. However, the White House remains intent on controlling this process. So the bill is unlikely to advance unless President Trump decides otherwise. And for now, he seems to be reluctant because as you and I have discussed in the past, Brittany, there's, there's the sort of Ukraine, Russia component here in terms of negotiating peace. But there's also that other track of US Russia normalization, which certainly has not made any significant progress. Definitely not as much progress as President Trump hoped it would over the last few months. But even so, in President Trump's mind, although I don't know exactly what's going on inside his head, but I can tell that he still harbors some hope that there could be some sort of a normalization between Moscow and Washington and therefore for him to actually impose sweeping sanctions on Russia. Now, it's one thing when he talks about doing it, it's a threat, it's a tactic. But when it comes to actually coming out and imposing uncontrollable sanctions, something that we've never seen before, something that is unprecedented, I don't think that he is going to do that anytime soon. Soon, because that would effectively burn that bridge. It's a very fragile bridge already between Washington and Moscow. But that would absolutely kill, for lack of a better term, any chance of any sort of a negotiation. Because as you know, we haven't yet seen an in person meeting under Trump 2.0 with Vladimir Putin. So he may still be hoping that when that meeting eventually happens, and I think it will happen eventually, the timing will be interesting whether or not it happens also because Putin is ready for the meeting or Trump is really pushing for that meeting. But even so, eventually it's bound to happen and it'll be very interesting to see what comes out of it. And I don't think that we will be seeing any sweeping sanctions from the US Until Trump has exhausted every option or every imaginary option that he may have in terms of concessions that will still be sort of portrayed as carrots rather than sticks. But going into this with just sticks, I don't think that is going to necessarily be what President Trump does vis a vis Russia.

It's really interesting because it seems like there's been so much action in the last week, but so much has stayed the same in the sense of peace talks are stalled, there isn't significant movement there. We're still looking out for a summer Russian offensive. What are you looking out for aside from those things? What are you looking out for between Russia, between Ukraine, even the United States to indicate any advancement towards peace, towards a solution, towards the end of this war?

I do feel that it will be same old same old over the next few weeks because they're all, in many ways, and for different reasons, dragging their feet. They're dragging out this process. It is in every, every one of these actors interests, but for different reasons and oftentimes for contradictory reasons, very contrasting reasons as to why they are dragging out the process. I think the biggest factor, and I keep coming back to this whenever we talk, it's the situation on the battlefield. At the end of the day, this is a kinetic war. So what happens on the battlefield matters a great deal. How much Russia is able to gain over the coming weeks, over the next couple of months is going to matter a great deal because Vladimir Putin does have a grandiose appetite, that is true. But at the same time, he must be every now and then at least quite pragmatic in terms of how much is he actually going to be able to gain in terms of territory versus what he's going to come out and say on television in his public, public statements. I think realistically speaking, there, there has to be some sort of a ceiling. There has to be a point where he realizes, okay, I got what I wanted, or at least what I would be able to get under the current circumstances. I've maximized my gains and now I'm ready to talk. It'll probably be, I would say, closer to the early fall rather than any time this summer that he is going to feel like he's been able to extract anything and everything he could from the Ukrainians before. He's able to really sort of be comfortable with coming to the table just with the notion of agreeing to sit down with the Ukrainian side. So for the time being, he will keep looking for all kinds of excuses to stretch this time for Ukraine. Ukraine is responding, right? So yes, of course we do see operations such as the, the one on June 1st and June 3rd that we've seen, seen and they're very impressive. And that will likely continue, but not at that scale and not every week. I don't think there, there is still more that, that Ukraine can do. But in many ways, when we talk about Ukrainian operations, these are counter offensive, counter offensives and responses because we cannot forget who started this war. It was Russia that invaded Ukraine. Ukraine did not provoke Russia, no matter what Vladimir Putin says. So Ukraine is essentially responsible, responding to the Russian actions. So I think that they will be trying to do what they can on their own. I think there will be a lot of diplomatic slash political work that Kiev tries to undertake over the next couple of months. This was one of the ways with Operation Spider's Web, that President Zelensky showed President Trump, as I said earlier, what Ukraine is capable of. And President Trump wants to affiliate himself with Winners, not with losers. So these are suddenly cards that he saw himself firsthand that Ukraine does possess. Even if they're limited, it's certainly something and it's impressive. So if President Zelenskyy is able to capitalize on that and he's really able to use that momentum over the next couple of months, this could be a diplomatically and a politically important period while the fighting continues. In terms of convincing President Trump to continue supporting Ukraine, I'm certainly not under any illusion that we will go back to the way things were in terms of the scale of US Military support under Biden Harris. That is just not going to happen. There's also very little appetite domestically in terms of the public. The public is not going to be willing to support Ukraine at the scale that the United States was supporting the Ukrainian side over the last few years. So that is very clear to me. But at the same time, you know, this is another signpost is, is Ukraine going to be using this time to talk diplomacy and politics and have a lot more sort of opportunities for face time with the US but also with individual European countries to do what they can in the interim while we all wait to see what Russia does on the battlefield? That will be very important because at the end of the day, that will dictate what happens going forward. And the United States. I do feel that, you know, realistically speaking, President Trump has much bigger fish to fry right now. There's a lot going on domestically, there's a lot going on with tariffs. The ongoing trade war has certainly not gone away. So this is what occupies him. This is what occupies the majority of his time. And at the moment, he is losing his patience and he's frustrated with Russia slash Ukraine just broadly as a project because he's not getting the fast results that he was hoping to get. So up until one of the sides, either Russia or Ukraine, using diplomacy, diplomatic channels, as well as their various operations vis a vis the other, they can get the attention that they need to get for, from Trump. It'll be very difficult for, for them to maximize the momentum that I think they had the first couple of months after the inauguration. So these are all sorts of very different signposts, but at the, at the same time, they're all intertwined. And eventually it comes down to the military situation on the battlefield and what's happening on the battlefield as well as what is happening behind closed doors in terms of diplomacy and politicking.

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