The video explores the complex web of conflicts currently engulfing the Middle East, illustrating how overlapping wars and shifting alliances have destabilized the region. It presents a hypothetical scenario in which Donald Trump, leveraging America's influence, could broker peace between key players—Israel, Iran, the Palestinians, and Saudi Arabia. The narrative uses commentary from journalist Megan Stack to highlight both the historic mistakes of U.S. foreign policy and the unique opportunities present in today's fractured landscape.

Trump is painted as someone with both the power and the instinct to break out of the vicious cycle of violence that has long plagued the region. His divergence from previous U.S. presidents—shown in his willingness to negotiate directly and to apply tough leverage on all sides—is framed as a potential game-changer, provided he resists making the same mistakes as his predecessors. The path to peace is mapped out through a trilogy of deals: curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions for sanctions relief, forcing Israeli-Palestinian negotiations by holding back U.S. military support, and finally, normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Main takeaways from the video:

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Key Vocabularies and Common Phrases:

1. leverage [ˈliːvərɪdʒ] - (noun) - The power to influence people or situations to achieve a desired result. - Synonyms: (influence, power, advantage)

Donald Trump is the only person in the world who has enough leverage to break us out of this cycle.

2. unequivocally [ˌʌnɪˈkwɪvəkəli] - (adverb) - In a way that leaves no doubt; clearly and unambiguously. - Synonyms: (unambiguously, unmistakably, definitely)

He's actually the first US President in generations that's not unequivocally backing Israel.

3. predecessors [ˈprɛdɪˌsɛsərz] - (noun) - People who held a job or office before the current holder. - Synonyms: (forerunners, antecedents, forbearers)

Trump just can't repeat the same mistakes as his predecessors.

4. stalemate [ˈsteɪlˌmeɪt] - (noun) - A situation in which no progress is possible, especially because of disagreement; a deadlock. - Synonyms: (deadlock, impasse, standoff)

For years, these mutual threats left the region locked in a stalemate.

5. existential threat [ˌɛɡzɪˈstɛnʃl θrɛt] - (noun phrase) - A danger that threatens the existence of something, typically a nation or group. - Synonyms: (life-threatening danger, mortal threat, grave threat)

Israel feels that a nuclear armed Iran would pose an existential threat.

6. decimated [ˈdɛsɪmeɪtɪd] - verb (past tense) - Destroyed a large portion of something. - Synonyms: (devastated, wiped out, annihilated)

Israel has decimated Iran's proxy terrorist networks as well as their air defenses.

7. pragmatic [præɡˈmætɪk] - (adjective) - Dealing with things sensibly and realistically in a way that is based on practical rather than theoretical considerations. - Synonyms: (practical, realistic, sensible)

They've behaved in a relatively pragmatic way.

8. undercutting [ˌʌndərˈkʌtɪŋ] - verb (present participle) - Weakening the effectiveness, power, or ability of someone or something. - Synonyms: (undermining, weakening, sabotaging)

And if Israel is undercutting Trump, he should be ready to reduce American support.

9. pariah state [pəˈraɪə steɪt] - (noun phrase) - A nation considered to be an outcast or unacceptable member of the international community. - Synonyms: (outcast nation, rogue state, isolate)

Netanyahu must know that Israel is becoming a pariah state.

10. transactional [trænˈzækʃənl] - (adjective) - Concerned with achieving a particular exchange or result, often without regard to broader principles or relationships. - Synonyms: (deal-oriented, pragmatic, businesslike)

Sealing three deals will require Trump to be very transactional, which suits him perfectly.

The Path To a New Middle East (And A Nobel for Trump)

So America's at war. Major US strikes on Iran or not. 12 day war is over, but Israel is still at war. 50,000 Palestinians have been killed. Wait, wait, wait. That's the other war. Hezbollah launched a deadly drone attack. So how many wars are there? The biggest loss of light in Israeli history. The Trump administration has bombed Iran, strikes against Houthi targets. The Assad regime's rule over Syria ended. Does anyone know what they're doing? They don't know what the fuck they're doing. Do you understand that? If you zoom out, you'll see that the Middle east as we've known it for decades has been completely smashed. But there is one person who could end the famine, halt the endless bombings, get us off the treadmill of death, and actually broker peace. Who is it? Donald Trump is the only person in the world who has enough leverage to break us out of this cycle.

Times opinion writer Megan Stack lived in Jerusalem and Cairo. She reported from Gaza, and her work in Iran got her banned. She's here today to act as our tour guide to help us imagine what peace in the Middle east would look like. Trump is dealing with a Middle east that's completely different even from a few years ago. It may not look like it, but actually, I still see a path to peace. Trump just can't repeat the same mistakes as his predecessors. They called for peace, but at the same time, they waged war. They invaded countries, kicked out rulers, terrorized people with drones and bombs, all while pouring weapons into the region. You can't make war and peace at the same time and expect to make a difference. Okay, Meghan, but isn't that exactly what Trump is doing? Well, that's the thing. He called on Israel to end the war, stop killing people, and he promised to keep the US out of new wars. He always wanted to go to war with people. I don't want to go to war. And he did broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. President elect Trump is taking credit for the ceasefire and hostage deal. He seemed willing to negotiate with anyone. A direct deal with Hamas. He's actually the first US President in generations that's not unequivocally backing Israel. I'm not happy with Israel. Trump's original instinct was correct, but then he strayed off the path. He suggested kicking all the Palestinians out of Gaza. The US Will take over the Gaza Strip. He knows people are starving in Gaza, but he hasn't done anything to stop it. We've had some real progress. And then he bombed Iran. The strikes were a spectacular military success. Okay, but can he still turn it around? Realistically, none of these problems can be fixed in isolation. So crazy as it sounds, Trump has to do it all in one package. It's kind of like when he talks about his big, beautiful bill. Big, beautiful bill. Great big beautiful bill. Big, beautiful bill. He needs a big, beautiful. Let's call it rebalancing.

First, Megan and I are going to show you what full blown regional war could look like. Then Megan's going to outline three steps Trump can use to make radical peace and maybe even get himself that thing he keeps talking about. They don't get the Nobel Prize to certain people. Give me a Nobel Peace Prize. You should get the Nobel Prize, but I don't care about that now. There are a lot of players in the Middle east, but to grasp Meghan's solution, you just need to focus on four. The Israelis, the Palestinians, the Iranians, and the Saudis. Because they fear each other, they generate a lot of violence. Israelis fear more attacks from Palestinian militias, while Palestinians fear that Israel will occupy their lands forever. Israel feels that a nuclear armed Iran would pose an existential threat. In return, Iran feels Israel's powerful military and alliance with the US is is also an existential threat. Saudi Arabia, another US Ally, also has a rivalry with Iran. Does that make them friends with the Israelis? Not quite. Saudi Arabia won't even recognize Israel as a legitimate state until Israel creates a path to statehood for the Palestinians. Since Israel refuses, they're at an impasse. For years, these mutual threats left the region locked in a stalemate. But right now, Israel is dominating. It's crushing its enemies. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. But what happens if Israel's aggression just doesn't stop? Genocide in Gaza, war with Iran, regime change gone wrong, mass migration, even nuclear war? Okay, that's the worst case scenario. But how can Donald Trump possibly avoid all that? He can do it by tying together three deals. Now, we know in reality they'll be complex and difficult to negotiate, but it's still worth sketching out their main points. They work by removing what these players fear. And here's the good news. The first deal is the easiest one to make because Iran is not in a position to say no. Israel has decimated Iran's proxy terrorist networks as well as their air defenses. Their economy is in rough shape. If Iran's regime tries to make a nuclear weapon, Israel and maybe the US Will attack it again and possibly topple it. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. It's very simple. We're not going to let him. But Iran can't stall either, because US Sanctions are crippling its economy. So Iran needs to make a deal. It could shutter its nuclear weapons program in exchange for the US Relieving some sanctions. That's basically the deal they did with Obama in 2015. I gotta say, Iran has actually shown restraint after being repeatedly attacked. 14 missiles were shot at us the other day. They were very nice. They gave us warning. They've behaved in a relatively pragmatic way. And this is a version of Iran that Americans can work with. So it's time to bring back an updated Obama deal, which was working pretty well. But Megan, Israel hated that deal. Why would they ever be on board with that? Israel will hate the deal, but Israel also needs the United States. And if Israel is undercutting Trump, he should be ready to reduce American support. Tough love is long overdue in this relationship. So that's deal one.

Tough love is also how Trump gets to a second deal. As long as Israel keeps fighting the Palestinians, the Saudis won't recognize Israel and Iran may keep threatening it. So Trump needs Israel to stop fighting the Palestinians. And he can, by threatening to withhold the weapons Israel needs to keep fighting. What is the US Getting from its relationship with Israel? There is no upside in funding an ethnic cleansing campaign. If that's all this is, Trump has real leverage. Withholding weapons should be enough to get Israel to make more serious compromises. So here's deal two. Trump continues to give Israel weapons only when Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, then enters real negotiations with the Palestinians. But again, how does Trump actually get Netanyahu on board? Netanyahu must know that Israel is becoming a pariah state. Even Netanyahu himself has been charged with crimes against humanity. Israel needs an exit ramp, and Trump can offer one. If Trump can create just a little trust between the Israelis and Palestinians, he can unlock a historic deal 3. It will be a special day in the Middle east when Saudi Arabia joins us.

Ever since his first term, Trump has wanted to make peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But Saudi Arabia is holding out over two demands. One, it wants Israel to give the Palestinians a path to statehood. And two, it wants more US Military protection because it feels threatened by Iran. Trump's already got both things in deals one and two. The Israeli Palestinian talks in deal two should satisfy the Saudis first demand. And the Saudis don't need this military protection because Trump shuttered Iran's nuclear weapons program in deal one. So deal one plus deal two equals deal three. Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel and ties this whole new Middle East Together. Saudi Arabia is kind of a linchpin in all of this. They sit in the middle and they want to be the Arab country. I think they're dying to normalize relations with Israel. And let's face it, Saudi Arabia is rich, so they could help rebuild Gaza and stand up for Palestinian interests. In three deals, Trump can make everyone feel safer. It won't fix every problem, but it puts the train on a far more stable track and breaks the cycle of violence. Perhaps then Trump can steer the United States out of the Middle East. A win for Trump and probably everyone. If Trump really wants to be an America first president, we can't be stuck in these endless conflicts in the Middle East.

Sealing three deals will require Trump to be very transactional, which suits him perfectly. Deals work best when each side gets something it wants from the other. Iran wants a stable economy and the US doesn't want it to build a bomb. A win win Trump should take, even if it angers the Iran hawks and the Republican Party. leverage. Don't make deals without it. US weapons give Trump a ton of leverage over Israel that he can use to stop the fighting, even if it upsets his friends. And finally, sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases, I still end up with what I want. These deals put these governments and Trump in a position to make a lot of money. While these deals won't solve every problem, they are a first step to creating real change in the Middle East. When I was traveling through the Middle East, I was always frustrated by how the land is chopped up. These are some of the most ancient trade routes in the world, and yet people can't easily travel across them anymore. You can't go from Haifa to Beirut, you can't go from Tel Aviv to Tehran or from Gaza to Alexandria. Just try to imagine if this part of the world could somehow get to European style cohesion. There would be so much to gain. Not just trade and tourism, but on the most human level. Alright, that sounds great, Meghan, but will it get Donald Trump his Nobel Peace Prize? Yes, Fine, give him the prize. Give him whatever he wants. If he can actually break us out of this cycle of violence, that is what the prize is for. And believe me, people have definitely won it for less.

POLITICS, GLOBAL, INNOVATION, MIDDLE EAST, PEACE PROCESS, DONALD TRUMP, THE NEW YORK TIMES