ENSPIRING.ai: Lebanon says 21 killed in air strike in countrys north - BBC News

ENSPIRING.ai: Lebanon says 21 killed in air strike in countrys north - BBC News

The situation in Lebanon, worsened by the ongoing conflict with Israel, is putting massive strain on the country's internal stability and its diverse ethnic and religious communities. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports that 2,350 people have died since the escalation, with several killed in a recent air raid on a Christian village. This has amplified internal tensions among the various groups, with fears of renewed sectarian conflict lurking due to the hostilities and perceived affiliations with Hezbollah.

Hezbollah plays a central role in the Lebanese political and social landscape, enjoying significant support within the Shia community but facing opposition from other groups. While it's a political force with representation in parliament, the broader Lebanese population is weary of the group and the impact of their actions, including the recent conflict ties with Gaza. The community remains divided over Hezbollah's continued militaristic approach, with some Lebanese hoping for a separation from the hostilities that have historical ties with Iran.

Main takeaways from the video:

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Internal displacement in Lebanon is at alarming levels, affecting up to 25% of the population.
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Hezbollah's influence is massive but controversial, significantly impacting Lebanese politics and peace processes.
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The ongoing conflict intensifies Lebanon's existing economic crisis and raises concerns over political stability.
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There are diplomatic efforts hindered by deeper geopolitical ties and historical complexities in the Middle East.
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Regional dynamics, including Iran's powerful position, play a crucial role in the potential for peace or further conflict.
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Lebanese citizens and politicians look to global powers for signals and support in resolving their issues.
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Key Vocabularies and Common Phrases:

1. escalated [ˈɛskəleɪtɪd] - (verb) - Increased rapidly or became more intense. - Synonyms: (intensified, increased, heightened)

...since the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated last month.

2. repercussions [ˌriːpəˈkʌʃəns] - (noun) - Consequences of an event or action, typically unwelcome. - Synonyms: (consequences, outcomes, effects)

It is difficult to overstate the domestic repercussions, the domestic impact that Israel's war in Lebanon is having on the communal tensions and internal stability.

3. sectarian [sɛkˈtɛəriən] - (adjective) - Relating to religious or political sects and the differences between them. - Synonyms: (divisional, factional, partisan)

And there's concerns about the risk of renewed sectarian conflict within Lebanon.

4. mobilized [ˈmoʊbəˌlaɪzd] - (verb) - Prepared and organized troops for active service or assembled for action. - Synonyms: (assembled, marshalled, rallied)

...arguably the most powerful, most mobilized force and political party with some 12 members of parliament representing the group.

5. exasperates [ɪɡˈzæspəˌreɪts] - (verb) - Makes a problem, bad situation, or negative feeling worse. - Synonyms: (aggravates, worsens, exacerbates)

...it only gives it only further exasperates those tensions.

6. unilateral [ˌjuːnɪˈlætərəl] - (adjective) - Relating to, occurring on, or involving one side only. - Synonyms: (one-sided, independent, solitary)

...unilateral decision by Trump in was that about five, six years ago to collapse the Iran nuclear deal...

7. machinations [ˌmækəˈneɪʃənz] - (noun) - Scheming actions intended to accomplish some unlawful end. - Synonyms: (plots, schemes, conspiracies)

Now there are also internal machinations in Lebanon.

8. resuscitate [rɪˈsʌsɪˌteɪt] - (verb) - To revive from unconsciousness or apparent death; make something active or vigorous again. - Synonyms: (revive, rejuvenate, restore)

...but Iran still has the ability to resuscitate the group...

9. strategic [strəˈtiːdʒɪk] - (adjective) - Relating to the identification of long-term goals and the means of achieving them. - Synonyms: (tactical, planned, calculated)

...has a history of strategic patience and follow through and persistence.

10. persistence [pərˈsɪstəns] - (noun) - Firm or obstinate continuance in a course of action in spite of difficulty or opposition. - Synonyms: (determination, resolve, tenacity)

...has a history of strategic patience and follow through and persistence.

Lebanon says 21 killed in air strike in country’s north - BBC News

Let's move on, though, and turn to the situation in Lebanon, where the Health ministry says that 2,350 people have now been killed since the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated last month. It says 41 people died in air raids on Monday. Well, they included 22 people who'd been killed in a strike in a Christian majority village of Aytu. That's in the north of the country. 12 women and two children are said to be among those killed when a house sheltering displaced people was hit.

Lebanon is home to a number of ethnic and religious groups, including Sunni and Shia Muslims, Druze, Alawite, Mennonite Christians, Greek Orthodox and others. Each, of course, has its own identity and political representation. Israeli attacks on displaced residents from southern Lebanon have raised tensions between communities, with some anxious that those seeking refuge could include people linked to Hezbollah. And there's concerns about the risk of renewed sectarian conflict within Lebanon.

Well, joining me to discuss that somewhat complicated patchwork is Firas Maqsad, Senior Director for strategic Outreach and Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Welcome to the context. We saw this attack on a Christian community in Lebanon. Israel now expanding its attacks in the country. What are your thoughts on what you see in terms of how this impacts, as we've discussed the many different communities living in the country?

Regina, thank you for having me. It is difficult to overstate the domestic repercussions, the domestic impact that Israel's war in Lebanon is having on the communal tensions and internal stability. We have over a million IDPs internally displaced persons in Lebanon, a country of some 4 to 5 million people. So roughly 20 to 25% of the population is on the move. And yes, a lot of those are do fall along communal and sectarian cleavages.

So we see a majority pro Hezbollah Shia community that is being displaced out of south Lebanon, out of the southern suburbs of Beirut, and into predominantly Christian and Sunni Muslim areas, Druze areas in which the population there does not necessarily view Hezbollah favorably. So there are political tensions, there are communal ethnic tensions. And, and when Israel strikes at a predominantly Christian area the way that it did in the past 24 hours, it only gives it only further exasperates those tensions.

Now, mind you, Israel struck at an apartment that was rented out to some of these refugees. Allegedly there was a Hezbollah commander that had taken refuge in that village and that only again fuels the tensions in these communities. How does that play into the way that Hezbollah is viewed in Lebanon? I mean, of course, they are, you know, force politically as well in the country Aren't they?

Of course. And you know, arguably the most powerful, most mobilized force and political party with some 12 members of parliament representing the group. However, that does not go to say that Hezbollah enjoys a majority support in Lebanon. It enjoys significant support within the Shia community. It is an Iranian project that spanned over 45 years at this point, with a lot of funding, arming community service, clinics, hospitals and whatnot being offered at the largesse of Iran to that community.

But outside that community, certainly most Sunnis and Christians and Druids and others do not support Hezbollah. And even a significant portion of the Shia community did not want to see Lebanon dragged into a war, having watched for a year the devastation in Gaza. And so yes, there's a lot of, there's a lot of quiet criticism in the Shia community, but certainly much louder beyond that for Hezbollah having brought this war upon Lebanon.

Okay, let's bring our panel in to discuss this in a bit more detail. Andrew and Doug. Andrew, I'll start with you on this one. Political stability in Lebanon has been challenging in the last couple of years already and the country is already going through a massive economic crisis. And now we see this war going on in Israel, expanding its military campaign in Lebanon. Is there any way to de escalate in a positive way in the coming weeks? I mean, some people are saying now there is no way back.

Look, it seems very, very difficult and I think it is very difficult to see a way back. I mean, again, I think this is a failure of international diplomacy for over 30 years, frankly, since the last decent attempt at trying to resolve the Middle east, the statehood for Palestine. And since then we've seen, you know, various attempts to bring Iran in. Then of course, the unilateral decision by Trump in was that about five, six years ago to collapse the Iran nuclear deal, which was a, you know, multi party deal with the EU involved as well. Trump unilaterally pulled out of that.

Again, I, I think there's been some pretty poor judgment and a lack of, you know, a lack of leadership from the us, from people within the region, both on the Palestinian side, the Israeli side, and indeed the ongoing instability within the Lebanese government of those times as well to try and bring parties together to try and seek a peaceful resolution. Look, the losers here are always going to be the civilian populations, whether that's of Israel, whether of Palestine and whether of Lebanon. And actually, you know, the, the failures here are not primarily the primary failures here are of leadership, political leadership.

And we need to get back to that view. We are not going to get a peaceful settlement without justice for the Palestinians. And it all comes back to that. But it also needs bringing in other regional players as well into a respectful dialogue. And that seems further away than ever, unfortunately.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm going to bring Doug in to something you just said there, Andrew. Andrew was saying, saying that, Doug, that the US hasn't really done enough when it comes to the situation in Lebanon, even though it holds a lot of cards when it comes to things in the region. What's your take on what Andrew said that.

Well, politically that's certainly how things are playing out. Anything that speaks to chaos, right. Donald Trump is often a word cloud of chaos. But when he's able to shift that to Joe Biden and therefore Kamala Harris because of what's happening globally, in the Middle east, in Ukraine, potentially in China, it plays into Trump's hands and is one of the problems that Kamala Harris is having with her camp, with her campaign because she can't fully separate herself from Biden on this issue. And wherever she does, there are potential political landmines right there.

And Regina, I had lunch on Friday with a friend who had just come back from Lebanon who's been there about 20 times as a journalist who said to me that she wanted to go one more time not just to see what was happening, but because she feared that she'd never see it the same way again, that it would never fully come back. And that is devastating to hear and talks about not just the immediacy of what's happening in Lebanon, but real long term repercussions for us.

Let's bring you back in as well. I mean, in many ways, again, as Doug was saying, their Lebanese friends that I know are almost kind of accustomed to the realities of war, even though it's been some years since a major conflict. What is the mood on the ground in terms of trying to come to some sort of political resolution away from Hezbollah?

I mean, is there any way forward, do you think? I mean, Andrew and Doug don't think there is and it's just going to escalate. Well, there are a couple of avenues being explored. So where Lebanon has been since October 7, since the Hamas attacks on Israel, is that Iran and Hezbollah has pretty much linked the country's fate to what's happening in Gaza, refusing to cease fire on northern Israel before Israel ceases fire in Gaza.

That linkage continues to exist until today. And there are many Lebanese who don't want that and don't feel that the country needs to be taken hostage Until Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, and Benjamin Netanyahu agree to a ceasefire, that doesn't look likely anytime soon.

Now there are also internal machinations in Lebanon. Hezbollah has vetoed the election of a president now for almost two years because they don't have the majority in the Lebanese parliament. And so there are efforts to get a president elected and to get a coalition independent of Hezbollah to try and reinstate state authorities in south Lebanon, where Hezbollah looms large and is dominant, and to again call for Hezbollah's weapons to be integrated into the state and have the state really in charge of making decisions of war and peace for the country rather than this Iranian supported and sponsored group.

So we see that that kind of activism is being reinvigorated in their efforts to try and elect a president. Much of that is going to depend on what comes out of Washington, Paris and some of these Arab capitals of influence, because Lebanese politicians have historically always looked to these countries of influence to take their cues about where to go next.

And Iran is the most powerful player at this point and has a history of strategic patience and follow through and persistence. So Israel has landed some pretty powerful blows against Hezbollah, but Iran still has the ability to resuscitate the group and make sure that it continues to be a dominant force. That's a really interesting perspective there for us. Maxar, thank you very much for joining us from Washington.

Doug, Andrew, we'll be back with you in a moment. Around the world and across the UK this is BBC News.

Politics, Global, Conflict, Middle East, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Bbc News