ENSPIRING.ai: The Covid Economy - The Unshrinking State - BBC Newsnight

ENSPIRING.ai: The Covid Economy - The Unshrinking State - BBC Newsnight

The video examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on various facets of society, primarily focusing on changes in economic policies and the role of government. It highlights how capitalism has been challenged, drawing parallels with post-war transformations that saw increased government intervention for societal benefit. The situation has prompted talks of a new social contract and reconsideration of economic strategies, echoing some Scandinavian models.

Discussions are featured around the local impacts of COVID-19, as demonstrated by the examples from Burnley and South Lakeland in the UK. These areas reveal the disparities faced during the pandemic, with issues of unemployment, fiscal challenges, and the need for regional and national economic regeneration. Communities affected by the crises are seen striving for recovery and adapting to new economic realities, leading to discussions around government intervention and support.

Main takeaways from the video:

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COVID-19 has significantly impacted economies, potentially heralding a shift towards more government involvement in economic activities.
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Economic and social inequalities have been exposed, raising discussions on long-term protective measures like universal basic income.
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Recovery efforts are underway, with emphasis on investments that can foster economic growth and sustainability in a post-pandemic world.
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Key Vocabularies and Common Phrases:

1. distorted [dɪˈstɔːrtɪd] - (verb) - Changed from the normal shape or appearance in a way that is not pleasant. - Synonyms: (twisted, deformed, warped)

Covid-19 has distorted our lives in ways that were unthinkable just a few months ago.

2. recession [rɪˈsɛʃən] - (noun) - A period of temporary economic decline where trade and industrial activity are reduced. - Synonyms: (downturn, depression, slump)

The health crisis isn't over. The recession has just begun.

3. suffering [ˈsʌfərɪŋ] - (noun) - The state of undergoing pain, distress, or hardship. - Synonyms: (pain, distress, hardship)

In the years following World War Two, the UK saw a change of direction born out of collective suffering.

4. blip [blɪp] - (noun) - A temporary or minor change that does not have significant long-term effects. - Synonyms: (glitch, anomaly, hiccup)

One thing we have, I hope, learned in this period is that this is not just a little blip on the screen.

5. regeneration [rɪˌdʒɛnəˈreɪʃən] - (noun) - The process of renewal, revival, or the development of something again. - Synonyms: (restoration, renewal, revitalization)

We've seen significant regeneration of this area.

6. furloughed [ˈfɜːrloʊd] - (verb) - Given a leave of absence, usually without pay in the context of employment. - Synonyms: (laid off, dismissed, granted leave)

The company furloughed about 60% of its 100 staff.

7. interventionist [ˌɪntərˈvɛnʃənɪst] - (adjective) - Related to government policies of intervening in the market or economy. - Synonyms: (meddling, intrusive, controlling)

Are we entering new economic waters? A larger, more interventionist state?

8. redistributes [ˌriːdɪˈstrɪbjuːts] - (verb) - Distributes again or differently, especially in a way considered more fair. - Synonyms: (reallocates, reallocates, shares out)

Government redistributes resources.

9. existential [ˌɛksɪˈstɛnʃəl] - (adjective) - Relating to existence or being. Often used to describe threats to survival. - Synonyms: (critical, life-threatening, crucial)

This is existential.

10. rebalance [ˌriːˈbæləns] - (verb) - Adjust the balance or arrangement of something again. - Synonyms: (readjust, realign, recalibrate)

Between changed priorities to rebalance between the young and the old.

The Covid Economy - The Unshrinking State - BBC Newsnight

So has it changed the way you see things? Covid-19 has distorted our lives in ways that were unthinkable just a few months ago. We've watched state and government step into a rather new role of intensity in directing what's possible for us. The picture's still not clear. The health crisis isn't over. The recession has just begun. It has put capitalism on pause, something that has never happened in the last 300 years. But already there is a question over whether the pandemic will mark a shift. I think we need a new social contract between people in society and between the generations. A moment where we start to think differently about each other, about work, about the economy.

In the years following world War two, the UK saw a change of direction born out of collective suffering. There was rebuilding and very high government debt. But there was also a new agreement that the state could and should do more for its citizens. We want houses for the soldiers returning from the war. We want houses for the people whose homes have been blitzed. We want schools, hospitals, improved social services of every kind. The public sector tends to grow over time. But after crises, periods of dramatic expansion, it rarely shrinks back to its former state.

One thing we have, I hope, learned in this period is that this is not just a little blip on the screen. This pandemic has taught us something about the kind of world we're in. And it's a world where the insecurity of a lot of people is not going to get any less in circumstances where there's been a lot of evidence in recent years of what economists would typically call market failures. Here's a chance for our government to think wisely and have a greater involvement in some aspects of our economic future. I've often described it to people in recent weeks as maybe we need to become a bit more scandinavian when it comes to economic transformation. The government had planned to start not in Scandinavia, but in places like this.

Burnley is one of the so called red wall seats that Conservatives took at the last election on the promise of regional growth and levelling up. This fabrics company is a faint echo of Burnley's past, when a thriving weaving industry pushed the town's employment to its peak in 1929. Pinaz creates custom materials, some destined for hotels, pubs and restaurants, some for the healthcare sector. We did two of the Nightingale hospitals and we've supplied the NHS all over the UK. But hospitality has been a real challenge. The company furloughed about 60% of its 100 staff. It's slowly bringing people back. Its manufacturing, dependent on hospitality's recovery.

Burnley came into this crisis with higher than average unemployment and measures of deprivation. And Covid has hit the town hard. Nearly a third of workers here were put into the furlough scheme, one of the highest rates in the country. Now, it seems to be reasonably clear is that some of the biggest sufferers of this crisis are those that are typically left behind anyhow. And if the government wants to have anything seriously behind the rhetoric, which partly helps it win the election, they need to treat the levelling of the gender seriously.

This is the Weavers triangle and we've seen significant regeneration of this area. I mean, basically this has been blighted for many years, but we brought it forward working with a range of partners. A local regeneration effort has meant faster jobs growth than neighbouring areas in recent years. But the redundancies have started, especially in suppliers to the aerospace industry. The council hopes that its town centre leisure development might be part of the government's promised building boom. That was one of our shovel ready projects and we're just waiting for news on that as to whether that's been included in the program. But that would make a massive change because we know we've got to diversify our town centre.

This printing firm didn't stop work during lockdown. For the love of printing, for the love of Burnley. We've kept the factory going, perhaps against accountants advice at certain times. The owner is involved in regeneration around Lancashire and he's worried that some places will find themselves overlooked again. I think Burnley are a better place than most terms of the region. I have it on good hearing that there is only so much to go around and Covid has taken an awful lot and the money that might have been sanctioned to the smaller towns in the region might not be there.

This crisis has already pushed government borrowing to record levels and debt to over 100% of GDP. And Burnley reflects some of the growing demands on the state, not just to stimulate and create jobs urgently, but to ensure that areas that were weaker going into the crisis aren't slowest and weakest to emerge and across the country, not just to fix the immediate problems in health and social care, but to address future challenges around climate change or an ageing population in a way that helps in the here and now.

Is there a magic money tree after all? Well, I think during a huge crisis it makes sense to borrow to get yourself through this. This is existential. The key thing, I think, is that the spending you do now and the investments you make now have really high returns and deliver that new social contract. If you make those investments really well, you build the productive capacity that enables your economy to grow much faster and be able to repay the debt. The problem is not that public debt is being produced. The question is what do we do with it? How do we convert that debt, that liquidity, into investment, into green jobs and shared prosperity?

So are we entering new economic waters? A larger, more interventionist state? A willingness to continue the radicalism of the crisis in tackling unemployment or inequality? One long time advocate of small government and low taxes fears. So government spending is taxation, pure and simple. And that it is. I mean, government doesn't create resources. Government redistributes resources. Whatever they give to one person, they have to take from another person. Redistribution is not the answer. It really isn't.

And all these governments are doing everything wrong by spending way too much, which will in the long term. In fact, in the short term will have enormous damage on the economy. Permanent economic damage is what the government, through furlough loans and grants, has been trying to prevent. South Lakeland came into this pandemic in a very different position to Burnley. Very low levels of unemployment, low levels of deprivation. But it too has been hit hard by Covid.

Windermere Lake cruises is reopening. We've had to take seats out of boats, we've had to totally reconfigure the vessels. But the crucial summer season could still be tough. It is a viable option at 50% capacity and. But that's if we do fill the vessels at that, we just don't know how consumers are going to behave or how they're going to book.

When foot and mouth closed this cafe in 2001, the owner switched to making relishes and chutneys. She's adapted again, selling online, but is worried her buyers in hospitality won't have recovered when furlough ends in October. The Lake District is incredibly seasonal and so we need to have some support that goes on longer than is being currently rolled out, because the businesses won't have recouped what they've lost in the last four months enough to sustain them over another winter.

In ambleside, the parish centre has been delivering hot meals in partnership with the local school. The centre's food bank has also been busy. We used to see about eight people a month. It's now anywhere between twelve and 15 people a week. So that for us in a small community, is significant. With little summer work on offer, the need is expected to increase into the autumn.

We know the need is going to get greater. So our plan is to develop our food bank, offering for the next twelve months it will keep increasing. At the beginning of this crisis, the government had to bolster the UK safety net in a hurry, with increases to things like universal credit and Covid has exposed our vulnerabilities, both physical and economic, to big, unpredictable shocks. The question is, has that created space for a lasting rethink about how to address the inequalities exposed by the pandemic, how we support each other and how to pay for it?

It's not going to get any simpler for the people, least advantaged and least secure. And that seems to me prima facie to be a pretty good case for keeping protections in place and indeed going on asking what are the the deeper, longer term protections that ought to be there? And the universal basic income proposal, which was on the wilder outer reaches of possibility a couple of years ago, is now being discussed much more sympathetically by quite a few unexpected people.

This economic battle is heating up on different fronts. Free markets economics will ultimately win, even if they suffer short term setbacks like right now, between changed priorities to rebalance between the young and the old, because the young are the other group that have really suffered during this crisis and the pre crisis status quo. Certainly there'll be a lot of enthusiasm to get back to what we still think of as normal. I just suspect that it's going to be harder than people imagine, and also that there's going to be quite a groundswell from people who have discovered that it's possible to think differently in this period for a government with far more to do than it expected, and far more, perhaps expected of it.

Economics, Leadership, Government, Social Contract, Regional Growth, Economic Recovery, Bbc Newsnight